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Counter-Strike 2 competition season is heating up. Towards the end of October, we'll be watching the BLAST Premier: World Final tournament, where 8 teams will compete for the $1,000,000 prize pool.
Among the contenders for the $500,000 top prize are place Natus Vincere and Astralis. Both teams will start their journey through BLAST Premier: World Final 2024 in Group A, where they will play a face-to-face match against each other.
We're trying to see if the Danes can put up a fight against the best team in the world and earn their first win in Group A.
Let's go.
NaVi's form
Let's open the analysis of NaVi vs Astralis match with the analysis of NaVi's form. In this match the best team in the world will play as favourites with odds of 1.3.
NaVi played a series of good tournaments while still in the previous squad. In almost every one, they have placed high.
They started with a top 6 at BLAST Premier: Spring Groups 2023. Then top-3 at IEM Katowice 2023 and a similar result at ESL Pro League Season 17.
NaVi took BLAST.tv Paris Major 2023: European RMR A without any problems and qualified for the Major in Paris. Before the only Major of the season, Natus Vincere took the top 4 at the IEM Masters Rio 2023.
The Paris tournament turned out to be a failure for NaVi. Top-11 is hardly a decent result for a team of Natus Vincere's status.
- NaVi roster: w0nderful, b1t, Aleksib, jL, iM.
Before the Long Conner IEM Cologne NaVi made a global Reshuffle, translating the roster into English. In addition to electroNic, Perfecto and npl who left, jL with Apeks, iM with GamerLegion and Aleksib, who previously played for Ninjas in Pyjamas, joined the team.
With the new lineup, NaVi made their debut at BLAST Premier: Fall Groups 2023. "Born to Win" managed to earn a place in the autumn finals by finishing in the top 4-6.
At IEM Cologne 2023 Natus Vincere played two matches. First, they lost to MOUZ with a score of 0-2, and then defeated OG in Bo3. At the end of the top championship NaVi reached the top 8, which is a good result for the then renewed roster.
Then there were a number of appearances at major events with very good results. NaVi entered the top 8 at Gamers8 and took the top 2 at ESL Pro Legue Season 18.
The key tournament of the season for "yellow-black" can be called IEM Sydney 2023. There NaVi for the first time in a long time played without their main headliner S1mple, whose place was temporarily taken by coach B1ad3. Andrew tried, but NaVi could not jump above the top-12.
After S1mple left the active roster, NaVi started the game with w0nderful. He made his debut for the Yellow-Blacks at BLAST Premier: World Final 2023. Natus Vincere played him very well, reaching the top 4. In the match for the Grand Final Ledgeili future tournament champions and the best team in the world Vitality.
The year 2024 started with high notes - they were the best at PGL Major Copenhagen 2024: European Qualifier A. However, further on, the performance slipped a bit and NaVi took the top-12 at ESL Pro League Season 19 and IEM Dallas 2024, as well as the top-2 at BLAST Premier: Spring Final 2024.
Esports World Cup 2024 NaVi Long Competed with a solid 2-0 win over FURIA. Entering the play-offs, the "born to win" fell to FaZe Clan in the first round. NaVi were again stronger than FaZe, but this time they won with the score 2-0. Then there was a rather difficult match against MOUZ, where NaVi lost on the first map with the score 1-13, but then they got together and made it to the grand final. In the final match they played against G2 Esports, where they won 2-1, thus winning their second prestigious tournament of the year.
At the BLAST Premier: Fall Groups 2024 NaVi Long Competed with a confident victory over BIG. But against Liquid "born to win" did not fare well, losing in a dramatic situation without defuse kits on the 3rd map. In the re-match with BIG they were stronger again, confidently shutting down the German club with a score of 2-0. However, they failed to move further into the top 6 at BLAST Premier: Fall Groups 2024.
At the ESL Pro League Season 20 NAVI became the winners of Group A, passing Lynn Vision, NiP and Eternal Fire without any problems. NaVi started the ESL Pro League Season 20 playoffs with a victory over their principal rival - Team Spirit - and a confident 2-0 win. Next, they defeated G2 Esports (2-1) and defeated Eternal Fire in the EPL S20 final with a score of 3-2.
At IEM Rio 2024, NaVi qualified from Group A with second place Ledgeiv Furia. In the play-offs, they beat Vp (2-0) and Heroic (2-1) in turn. And in the grand final NaVi defeated MOUZ (3-1), thus becoming the champion of a major tournament for the 4th time in a season.
NaVi Mappool
NaVi's best map for 3 months is Inferno. The team played there 5 times with a win rate of 60 per cent.
On Mirage, Ancient. Nuker, Overpass and Anubis NaVi has 50% wins. On Ancient and Nuke the team played 4 matches each, on the others - 2.
Vertigo are not playing.
Astralis Form
We continue the analysis of the match Astralis - NaVi with the analysis of the Danish club's form. In this match Astralis play as the number two with the odds of winning around 4.
The Danish club had a difficult period. They tried their best to "return" to the TIR-1 scene, but they constantly fell short: Astralis finished top-20 at ESL Pro League Season 17 and top-14 at BLAST.tv Paris Major 2023: European RMR B.
At lesser tournaments, however, Astralis fared well. The world's most titled team finished Top 2 at Brazy Party, won CCT South Europe Series #4 and finished Top 4 at Pinnacle Cup V.
Returning to the S-Tier Championships, Astralis took Top 6 at IEM Masters Dallas 2023 and Top 8 at BLAST Premier: Fall Groups.
Prior to the BB Dacha, Astralis attended a number of other events. Those were ESL Pro League Season 18 and Roobet Cup 2023, where the once stellar Danes finished in the Top 16.
Just before the Long Convergence, BB Dacha Astralis finished in the Top 4 at CS Asia Championship 2023 and Top 8 at BLAST Premier: Fall Finals. The swing in performance is primarily due to roster manipulation.
- Astralis roster: dev1ce, Staehr, stavn, jabbi, CadiaN.
Before IEM Katowice 2024 they played at BLAST Premier: Spring Groups 2024. At the end of the championship the Danes made it to the top 6 and it was enough to get to the BLAST Premier: Spring Final. The IEM Katowice 2024 Astralis failed in the dust and dust: took the top 32, not passing the Play-In stage.
Then there were two attempts to get to the PGL Major Copenhagen 2024, but both were unsuccessful: TOP-11 at European RMR B and TOP-6 at European RMR Decider put an end to Astralis' participation in the home Major.
In the first match of IEM China 2024 Astralis played against steel helmet, as Monte could not make it to China. And if Monte had played there, the score would have been obviously not so crushing as 13-2 in favour of Astralis. Although, judging by the match with FaZe, where Astralis were a head and shoulders above FaZe, shutting down the top 1 team in the world with a score of 2-0, maybe Astralis are very energised for IEM China 2024. In the play-offs of the championship Astralis met FaZe Clan again, but this time they were weaker and lost with the score 1-2 and left the tournament.
Astralis visited ESL Pro League Season 19, where they reached the TOP-4, where in the match for the grand final Ledge and Vitality. Later, they had an identical result at CCT Season 1 Global Finals and YaLLa Compass 2024.
At BLAST Premier: Spring Finals 2024, Astralis played in Group A, where they finished in the top 3. They made it to the play-offs Ledge or Vp and left the tournament at the Top 6 stage. Later Astralis played at IEM Cologne 2024, where they finished top-12.
At the ESL Pro League Season 20 Long Season they were defeated by Fnatic (1-2). Next was a match against CoL (0-2). They finished ESL Pro League Season 20 as ignominiously as they started - losing to CoL and leaving the tournament at the TOP-28 stage.
After such poor results Astralis continued their attempts to return to the TIR-1 stage. For this purpose, they played at BLAST Premier: Fall Final 2024, where they took TOP-8 and at Intel Extreme Masters Rio 2024, where they were TOP-12. As you can see, the attempts were not successful.
Astralis Mapple
Astralis has two 100% maps. They are Nuke with 9 wins in 14 matches, and Anubis with 5 matches and 4 wins.
They also play Ancient (66% wins in 3 matches). Still playing Mirage (9 matches, 4 wins). Vertigo with 2 wins and 3 losses and Overpass (2 wins in 7 matches).
Do not play Inferno.
History of head-to-head meetings NaVi - Astralis
Previously the teams played each other twice in season 2024 and both times NaVI won.
Predicted result of Astralis vs NaVi on BLAST Premier: World Final 2024
In this match my bet is on NaVi. This year the Ukrainian club shows unprecedented performance and is definitely the best team in the world. As for Astralis, everything is much more modest, and the constant confusion with the roster only distances them from stability.
Bottom line: NaVi win.
