Welcome to EGamersWorld.
We continue to traverse the expanses of competitive Counter-Strike 2. Our destination is Malta, where ESL Pro League Season 20 has been taking place for many weeks.
At ESL Pro League Season 20 the group stage is heating up, where the participants of play-offs are determined. We are interested in Group C of The International, where Fnatic and Astralis will play against each other in the first round of the group stage.
We are trying to find out who will be stronger in the Astralis - Fnatic match and will go to the next round of the top group C, and who is destined to continue their way down the ESL Pro League S20.
Let's go.
Astralis Form
Let's open the Astralis vs Fnatic match with an analysis of Astralis' form. In this match the Danish club plays the first number one with odds to win around 1.3.
The Danish club has not had an easy period. They tried their best to "return" to the TIR-1 scene, but they constantly fell short: Astralis finished top-20 at ESL Pro League Season 17 and top-14 at BLAST.tv Paris Major 2023: European RMR B.
At lesser tournaments, however, Astralis fared well. The world's most titled team finished Top 2 at Brazy Party, won CCT South Europe Series #4 and finished Top 4 at Pinnacle Cup V.
Returning to the S-Tier Championships, Astralis took Top 6 at IEM Masters Dallas 2023 and Top 8 at BLAST Premier: Fall Groups.
Prior to the BB Dacha, Astralis attended a number of other events. Those were ESL Pro League Season 18 and Roobet Cup 2023, where the once stellar Danes finished in the Top 16.
Just before the Long Convergence, BB Dacha Astralis finished in the Top 4 at CS Asia Championship 2023 and Top 8 at BLAST Premier: Fall Finals. The swing in performance is primarily due to roster manipulation.
- Astralis roster: dev1ce, Staehr, stavn, jabbi, br0.
The latest additions to Astralis are stavn and jabbi. A couple came in with Heroic, who they bid farewell to on not-so-pleasant notes. That said, it's a reinforcement however you look at it.
The debut tournament for the roster was Dacha, where the Danes finished in the top 8. Then the new season began, which Astralis opened with a performance at PGL Major Copenhagen 2024: European Qualifier B. There they took TOP-3, which was enough to pass to RMR.
Before IEM Katowice 2024 they played at BLAST Premier: Spring Groups 2024. According to the results of the championship Danes broke through to the TOP-6 and it was enough to get to the BLAST Premier: Spring Final. The IEM Katowice 2024 Astralis failed in the dust and dust: took the top 32, not passing the Play-In stage.
Then there were two attempts to get to the PGL Major Copenhagen 2024, but both were unsuccessful: TOP-11 at European RMR B and TOP-6 at European RMR Decider put an end to Astralis' participation in the home Major.
In the first match of IEM China 2024 Astralis played against steel helmet, as Monte could not make it to China. And if Monte had played there, the score would have been obviously not so crushing as 13-2 in favour of Astralis. Although, judging by the match with FaZe, where Astralis were a head and shoulders above FaZe, shutting down the top 1 team in the world with a score of 2-0, maybe Astralis are very energised for IEM China 2024. In the play-offs of the championship Astralis met FaZe Clan again, but this time they were weaker and lost with the score 1-2 and left the tournament.
Astralis visited ESL Pro League Season 19, where they reached the TOP-4, where in the match for the grand final Ledge and Vitality. Later, they had an identical result at CCT Season 1 Global Finals and YaLLa Compass 2024.
At BLAST Premier: Spring Finals 2024, Astralis played in Group A, where they finished in the top 3. They made it to the play-offs Ledge or Vp and left the tournament at the Top 6 stage. Later Astralis played at IEM Cologne 2024, where they took TOP-12.
Astralis Mapple
Astralis has two 100% maps. They are Nuke with 9 wins in 14 matches, and Anubis with 5 matches and 4 wins.
They also play Ancient (66% wins in 3 matches). Still playing Mirage (9 matches, 4 wins). Vertigo with 2 wins and 3 losses and Overpass (2 wins in 7 matches).
Inferno are not playing.
Fnatic Form
We continue the analysis of Fnatic vs Astralis match with the analysis of Fnatic form. In this match they play as the number two with odds to win at around 3.
Fnatic were top-12 at IEM Masters Katowice 2023 and top-16 at CCT North America Europe Series #4. There was also the 16th place at EPL Season 17.
A qualitative breakthrough happened at BLAST.tv Paris Major 2023: European RMR A. There Fnatic finished in the top 2, which opened the way for them to BLAST.tv Paris Major 2023.
The only Major in 2023 went well for Fnatic. The team finished in the top 11, which is a decent result.
The last tournament before IEM Cologne 2023 was IEM Dallas 2023. Fnatic was not allowed to play in America: 9z Team knocked the "orange" out of the tournament at the TOP-16 stage.
- Fnatic roster: KRIMZ, afro, bodyy, matys, BlameF.
Prior to the Long Round of the tournament, Fnatic had a significant re-structuring of their roster. Dexter and afro joined the club during the Big Reshuffle. The Australian played for MOUZ for the past two years, while the Frenchman afro played for LDLC.
With a new roster, Fnatic made a very good debut at iEM Cologne, advancing to the group stage through Play-In. And things were going great in the groups. That is, until they fell to the bottom set after losing to ENCE.
"Orange" Ledgeili raw GamerLegion and wiped out all their efforts as IEM Cologne progressed. The tournament in Cologne ended with KRIMZ and company in 9th-12th place.
After IEM Cologne 2023 fnatic attended 2 more top championships. These were Gamers8 and ESL Pro League Season 18, where the "orange" showed, to put it mildly, a weak game: in Riyadh and Malta took the top 16 and this is clearly not something to brag about.
They debuted at IEM Sydney 2023 with a match against Cloud9. Being the underdog there, they managed to pull out a close 10-13 win. However, they failed to build on their success, as the team finished in the top 12 at IEM Sydney 2023.
In the 2024 season, Fnatic tried and tried to break into the TIR-1 scene, but did not do so well. For example, they finished top-20 at EPL Season 19, top-12 at CCT Global Finals 2024 and top-6 at YaLLa Compass 2024.
Fnatic Mapple
The perfect map for Fnatic stunned Ancient. "Orange" played it 4 times and won all matches.
A hundred per cent winrate also on Nuke with Anubis, but fnatic has only 1 match there.
Fnatic has the worst record on Overpass and Vertigo, where they have one win each in 3 matches.
History of head-to-head meetings between Astralis and Fnatic
Last time the teams played each other in the distant 2022.
Predicted result of Fnatic vs Astralis at ESL Pro League Season 20
Despite the serious nominal gap between Fnatic and Astralis, I still believe in a full-fledged Bo3. Astralis remain very unstable, although they have been performing quite well at the TIR-1 level lately.
Bottom line: total +2.5.
